Thursday, October 21, 2004
The Initiative?
Interesting bit of analysis on the ballot initiatives and various referenda in this particular election cycle.
There was much hay made early on that suggested that Karl Rove had a hand in pushing a number of contentious issues onto the ballot this year as a way to get conservatives out to vote. That may actually not be the case. While there are a number of favorable issues--among them is the bans on same sex marriage, the tide of the ballot movement this year seems to favor progressives in states that may actually matter the most to Democrats--again, an instance of Rove getting cute early on, only to have it back fire on him (think of his early decision to urge the steel tariff).
Additionally, it doesn't seem that in the end these conservative measures are going to matter much for the Republicans since they are lost in the noise of the "dual wars on terrorism and ...Iraq, the hemorrhaging of good jobs, the cost of health care and other kitchen table issues" have pushed same sex marriage sorts of issues to the bottom of the wrung. And while they may inspire the core, these issues will do very little to the swing voter, a strategy that may actually backfire for Rove and the President.
In Arizona, one of the wedge issues Rove created has now led to the very real possibility that the President will lose Arizona.. A ballot issue designed to prevent illegal aliens from voting or getting any public services has been perceived as draconian, turning off a number of libertarian leaning Republicans in a state already "displeased with Bush's guest worker program." Even though they won't turn their votes to Kerry, the possibility exists that they will support third party candidates or simply boycott the polls--costing the President 30,000 voters. In essence, the Arizona Rove wedge issue could become the next California Prop 187.
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There was much hay made early on that suggested that Karl Rove had a hand in pushing a number of contentious issues onto the ballot this year as a way to get conservatives out to vote. That may actually not be the case. While there are a number of favorable issues--among them is the bans on same sex marriage, the tide of the ballot movement this year seems to favor progressives in states that may actually matter the most to Democrats--again, an instance of Rove getting cute early on, only to have it back fire on him (think of his early decision to urge the steel tariff).
Additionally, it doesn't seem that in the end these conservative measures are going to matter much for the Republicans since they are lost in the noise of the "dual wars on terrorism and ...Iraq, the hemorrhaging of good jobs, the cost of health care and other kitchen table issues" have pushed same sex marriage sorts of issues to the bottom of the wrung. And while they may inspire the core, these issues will do very little to the swing voter, a strategy that may actually backfire for Rove and the President.
In Arizona, one of the wedge issues Rove created has now led to the very real possibility that the President will lose Arizona.. A ballot issue designed to prevent illegal aliens from voting or getting any public services has been perceived as draconian, turning off a number of libertarian leaning Republicans in a state already "displeased with Bush's guest worker program." Even though they won't turn their votes to Kerry, the possibility exists that they will support third party candidates or simply boycott the polls--costing the President 30,000 voters. In essence, the Arizona Rove wedge issue could become the next California Prop 187.
